Planning and data analysis system using machine learning algorithms
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Date
2020
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Abstract
The information system, which includes data analysis, data clustering, as well as sales amount prediction using machine learning algorithms will be described in this study. The system is intended for work in a manufacturing company that sells certain products to retail outlets. According to the Forbes article, “Ten Ways Big Data Is Revolutionizing Supply Chain Management” [1], companies tend to integrate big data and advanced analytics into optimization tools. Thus, the idea of the system was proposed to increase efficiency of business processes. The system includes a method which can be used for outlets clustering using unsupervised and supervised machine learning algorithms comprising 2 steps — data partition using unsupervised Gaussian Mixture (GM) Model clustering algorithm based on outlets sales amount and further partition for one of them using Logistic Regression (LR) and Neural Networks (NN) classification algorithms, which predict whether outlets will achieve monthly sales plan. The proposed algorithm was tested on real sales data and formed 3 clusters according to business needs. Sales plan on gave up to 74% accuracy. Also, system should include achievement prediction plans settling algorithm based on sales forecasting per each outlet. This part was implemented using regression ensembling algorithm XGBoost, time series model SARIMA and recurrent neural network LSTM model. Sales forecasting was based on weekly sales data for 5 years in the outlet and predicts future sales amount values. Models were compared in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and running time. From the results, it was decided to choose LSTM model which gave 17% MAPE and good running time to embed to the system with possible improvements.
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Keywords
data analysis, data clustering, machine learning algorithms, manufacturing company, data