Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination strategies

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Date

2024

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

Abstract

Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding and combating infectious diseases, offering predictive insights into disease spread and the impact of vaccination strategies. This paper explored the significance of mathematical modeling in epidemic control efforts, focusing on the interplay between vaccination strategies, disease transmission rates, and population immunity. To facilitate meaningful comparisons of vaccination strategies, we maintained a consistent framework by fixing the vaccination capacity to vary from 10 to 100% of the total population. As an example, at a 50% vaccination capacity, the pulse strategy averted approximately 45.61% of deaths, while continuous and hybrid strategies averted around 45.18 and 45.69%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that continuous vaccination has a more direct impact on reducing the basic reproduction number R0 compared to pulse vaccination. By analyzing key parameters such as R0 , pulse vaccination coefficients, and continuous vaccination parameters, the study underscores the value of mathematical modeling in shaping public health policies and guiding decision-making during disease outbreaks

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Keywords

mathematical modeling, infectious diseases, vaccination strategies

Citation

Bolatova D , Kadyrov Sh , Kashkynbayev A / Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination strategies / Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering / 2024