Browsing by Author "Kashkynbayev A."
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Item Open Access Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination strategies(Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024) Bolatova D.; Kadyrov Sh.; Kashkynbayev A.Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding and combating infectious diseases, offering predictive insights into disease spread and the impact of vaccination strategies. This paper explored the significance of mathematical modeling in epidemic control efforts, focusing on the interplay between vaccination strategies, disease transmission rates, and population immunity. To facilitate meaningful comparisons of vaccination strategies, we maintained a consistent framework by fixing the vaccination capacity to vary from 10 to 100% of the total population. As an example, at a 50% vaccination capacity, the pulse strategy averted approximately 45.61% of deaths, while continuous and hybrid strategies averted around 45.18 and 45.69%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that continuous vaccination has a more direct impact on reducing the basic reproduction number R0 compared to pulse vaccination. By analyzing key parameters such as R0 , pulse vaccination coefficients, and continuous vaccination parameters, the study underscores the value of mathematical modeling in shaping public health policies and guiding decision-making during disease outbreaksItem Open Access Modeling tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan using SARIMA and SIR models(Scientific Reports, 2024) Kalizhanova A.; Yerdessov S.; Sakko Y.; Kadyrov Sh.; Gaipov A.; Kashkynbayev A.Tuberculosis (TB) is a highly contagious disease that remains a global concern affecting numerous countries. Kazakhstan has been facing considerable challenges in TB prevention and treatment for decades. This study aims to understand TB transmission dynamics by developing and comparing statistical and deterministic models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). TB data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) using retrospective quantitative analysis. SARIMA models were able to capture seasonal variations, with Model 2 exhibiting superior predictive accuracy. Both models showed declining TB incidence and revealed a notable predictive performance evaluated by statistical metrics. In addition, the SIR model calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) below 1, indicating a receding epidemic. Models proved the capability of each to accurately capture trends (SARIMA) and provide mathematical insights (SIR) into TB transmission dynamics. This study contributes to the general knowledge of TB transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan thus laying the foundation for more comprehensive studies on TB and control strategies.Item Open Access Periodic solutions and the avoidance of pull-in instability in nonautonomous microelectromechanical systems(Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 2020) Kadyrov Sh.; Kashkynbayev A.; Skrzypacz P.; Kaloudis K.; Bountis A.We study periodic solutions of a one-degree of freedom microelectromechanical system (MEMS) with a parallel-plate capacitor under T-periodic electrostatic forcing. We obtain analytical results concerning the existence of T-periodic solutions of the problem in the case of arbitrary nonlinear restoring force, as well as when the moving plate is attached to a spring fabricated using graphene. We then demonstrate numerically on a T-periodic Poincaré map of the flow that these solutions are generally locally stable with large “islands” of initial conditions around them, within which the pull-in stability is completely avoided. We also demonstrate graphically on the Poincaré map that stable periodic solutions with higher period nT, n>1 also exist, for wide parameter ranges, with large “islands” of bounded motion around them, within which all initial conditions avoid the pull-in instability, thus helping us significantly increase the domain of safe operation of these MEMS models.Item Open Access Periodic solutions and the avoidance of pull-in instability in nonautonomous microelectromechanical systems(John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2020) Kashkynbayev A.; Skrzypacz P.; Kadyrov Sh.; Kaloudis K.; Bountis A.We study periodic solutions of a one-degree of freedom microelectromechanical system (MEMS) with a parallel-plate capacitor under T-periodic electrostatic forcing. We obtain analytical results concerning the existence of T-periodic solutions of the problem in the case of arbitrary nonlinear restoring force, as well as when the moving plate is attached to a spring fabricated using graphene. We then demonstrate numerically on a T-periodic Poincaré map of the flow that these solutions are generally locally stable with large “islands” of initial conditions around them, within which the pull-in stability is completely avoided. We also demonstrate graphically on the Poincaré map that stable periodic solutions with higher period nT, n>1 also exist, for wide parameter ranges, with large “islands” of bounded motion around them, within which all initial conditions avoid the pull-in instability, thus helping us significantly increase the domain of safe operation of these MEMS models