Browsing by Author "Yergesh D."

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    Mathematical Modelling the Impact Evaluation of Lockdown on Infection Dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy
    (medRxiv, 2020) Kadyrov Sh.; Orynbassar A.; Saydaliyev H.B.; Yergesh D.
    The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), within months of emergence from Wuhan, China, has rapidly spread, exacting a devastating human toll across around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the the beginning of March 2020. Thus, COVID-19’s daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy started as a small wave of 2 infected cases on January 31. It was followed by a bigger wave mainly from local transmissions reported in 6387 cases on March 8. It caused the government to impose a lockdown on 8 March to the whole country as a way to suppress the pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the lockdown and awareness dynamics on infection in Italy over the period of January 31 to July 17 and how the impact varies across different lockdown scenarios in both periods before and after implementation of the lockdown policy. The findings SEIR reveal that implementation lockdown has minimised the social distancing flattening the curve. The infections associated with COVID-19 decreases with quarantine initially then easing lockdown will not cause further increasing transmission until a certain period which is explained by public high awareness. Completely removing lockdown may lead to sharp transmission second wave. Policy implementation and limitation of the study were evaluated at the end of the paper.
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    The effect of quarantine measures in COVID-19
    (Advances in Interdisciplinary Sciences, 2020) Yergesh D.; Kadyrov Sh.; Orynbassar A.
    We consider deterministic SEIQR epidemic model for novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In addition to the classical SIR model, it takes into account the exposed and quarantined states. The objective of the study is to estimate epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and understand the effect of various quarantine measures. The basic reproduction number is estimated to be 3.622. The findings suggest that weaker quarantine measures may be insufficient to fight with the disease.