Browsing by Author "Orynbassar A."
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Item Open Access Application of ROC Curve Analysis for Predicting Students’ Passing Grade in a Course Based on Prerequisite Grades(MDPI Mathematics, 2022) Orynbassar A.; Sapazhanov Y.; Kadyrov Sh.; Lyublinskaya I.Determining prerequisite requirements is vital for successful curriculum development and student on-schedule completion of the course of study. This study adapts the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine a threshold grade in a prerequisite course necessary for passing the next course in a sequence. This method was tested on a dataset of Calculus 1 and Calculus 2 grades of 164 undergraduate students majoring in mathematics at a private university in Kazakhstan. The results showed that while the currently used practice of setting prerequisite grade requirements is accurately identifying successful completions of Calculus 2, the ROC method is more accurate in identifying possible failures in Calculus 2. The findings also indicate that prior completion of Calculus 1 is positively associated with success in a Calculus 2 course. Thus, this study contributes to the field of mathematics education by providing a new data-driven methodology for determining the optimal threshold grade for mathematics prerequisite courses.Item Open Access Factors Affecting Mathematics Achievement in Central Asian Specialized Universities(International Journal of Emerging Technologies in Learning (iJET), 2020) Sapazhanov Y.; Sydykhov B.; Kadyrov Sh.; Orynbassar A.This study examines variables explaining student’s academic performances in mathematics from the specialized engineering institutions. A survey consisting of 42 items was conducted from 127 students and statistical multiple regression was carried out to analyze the data set. Based on FennemaSherman Mathematic Attitude Scales followed by the result of stepwise linear regression, found a significant impact of high school geometry grades in the mathematics performance. Authors suggest that mathematics instructors in higher education should pay attention to improve their student’s confidence, which in turn would decrease the anxiety level towards mathematics. The high school teachers should not advise their students to go to technical sciences in higher education unless the student’s confidence and high school math grade are sufficiently high.Item Open Access Mathematical Modelling the Impact Evaluation of Lockdown on Infection Dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy(medRxiv, 2020) Kadyrov Sh.; Orynbassar A.; Saydaliyev H.B.; Yergesh D.The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), within months of emergence from Wuhan, China, has rapidly spread, exacting a devastating human toll across around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the the beginning of March 2020. Thus, COVID-19’s daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy started as a small wave of 2 infected cases on January 31. It was followed by a bigger wave mainly from local transmissions reported in 6387 cases on March 8. It caused the government to impose a lockdown on 8 March to the whole country as a way to suppress the pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the lockdown and awareness dynamics on infection in Italy over the period of January 31 to July 17 and how the impact varies across different lockdown scenarios in both periods before and after implementation of the lockdown policy. The findings SEIR reveal that implementation lockdown has minimised the social distancing flattening the curve. The infections associated with COVID-19 decreases with quarantine initially then easing lockdown will not cause further increasing transmission until a certain period which is explained by public high awareness. Completely removing lockdown may lead to sharp transmission second wave. Policy implementation and limitation of the study were evaluated at the end of the paper.Item Open Access On the solutions of second order difference equations with variable coefficients(faculty of engineering and natural sciences, 2024) Shynarbekb N.; Shynarbekb N.; Orynbassar A.In this article, we explore solutions to second-order linear difference equations featuring variable coefficients. By imposing mild conditions, we present closed-form solutions through the utilization of finite continued fraction representations. The proof of our results relies on elementary techniques, specifically involving factoring a quadratic shift operator. As a consequential application, we unveil two novel generalized continued fraction formulas for the mathematical constant π 2 .Item Open Access The effect of quarantine measures in COVID-19(Advances in Interdisciplinary Sciences, 2020) Yergesh D.; Kadyrov Sh.; Orynbassar A.We consider deterministic SEIQR epidemic model for novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In addition to the classical SIR model, it takes into account the exposed and quarantined states. The objective of the study is to estimate epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and understand the effect of various quarantine measures. The basic reproduction number is estimated to be 3.622. The findings suggest that weaker quarantine measures may be insufficient to fight with the disease.