Browsing by Author "Avgustov B."

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    Estimation of Vaccination Price through Mathematical Epidemic Models to Optimize the Government Cost
    (faculty of engineering and natural sciences, 2021) Dauzhanov Zh.; Avgustov B.; Shakuova D.
    These days, humanity is faced with a global Coronavirus pandemic problem, which entails a financial crisis, so the governments want to minimize their financial loss. In this project work by using the epidemic mathematical model we consider on the basic reproduction number, which is important parameter in the epidemiology and also on the optimization problem about how much should be a discount for the vaccination to optimize the government revenue. During this study, we get acquainted with the following topics: mathematical modelling, dynamical systems, epidemic models, stability analysis, optimization methods, simulations on software and etc. Initially, we constructed the epidemic model for COVID-19 and separated infectious individuals by two groups, based on the compartmental SIR model and after that by using two different approaches to analyze the model, namely, Linearization (Hartman-Grobman) and Next Generation matrix method, we obtained the most important formula in epidemiology: the basic reproduction number 1.3. To solve the government cost, we constructed the government cost function which takes into account the cost of vaccination, the cost of treatment, the average wage of citizens. By using the software we solved numerically the system of nonlinear differential equations of our epidemic model, also we optimized the governmental cost function depending on a vaccination discount and obtained the main result of applied part of our project work 1.6, that the government cost is minimized with making the vaccination fully free of charge for citizens. The study will be useful for the Government of Kazakhstan in predicting the number of infectious individuals as well as in planning the income revenue. By changing the initial parameters in our epidemic model, it is easy compute the basic reproduction number and Government cost function for any country.