5. Conference proceedings

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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND IMPACT OF VACCINATION STRATEGIES
(2022 International Young Scholars' Conference, 2022) D. Bolatova; Sh. Kadyrov; A. Kali
Abstract In this work, we consider mathematical time-varying Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered epidemic model to study optimal vaccination strategy to control excess death due to the epidemic. We model the periodic family of vaccination strategies based on vaccination days and gaps between two periods, where we assume that a government aims to vaccinate about 80% of its population within one year. This is a constraint optimization problem, and to find the optimal vaccination strategy we used a numerical analysis approach. The mathematical models are calibrated to COVID 19 situations in Kazakhstan. Findings of the experiments suggest that to control death tolls due to disease, the governments need to offer vaccinations at the maximum possible rate without any breaks until they reach the desired 80% goal.